The Dragon Lady Election Breakdown
Hello everyone,
I promised this and here it is, my formal breakdown on why Hillary Clinton would win an election between herself and the boys. Mind you all this data comes from three main sources;
- Results of the Election 2008
- Results of the Primaries 2008
- Common sense from what I know about this country, the politics and of course the rules of engagement.
Shall we begin?
Allow me to remind you of the electoral votes –
- Clinton - 245
- Obama - 158
- McCain - 135
How did I come to this conclusion?
The fact that Clinton did so well with the “big boy” states during the Primaries, I gave them to her. Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Texas, California and Florida. Michigan’s delegates were divided up between her and Obama by the (made up on the spot) rules of the DNC, but I suspect voter anger would turn them against the DNC and Michigan would have voted for her again in a general election.
There is of course the smaller states she won; Nevada, New Mexico, New Jersey and Indiana.
In grand total Hillary Clinton won only 11 states, but she won the most important ones.
Even though McCain won Texas, and Democrats never win Texas, you’d think I’d give it to him. But no, I felt that the Hispanic vote would be much stronger for Clinton. Obama barely lost Texas and barely won New Mexico because the Hispanics don’t like him as much. Obama wouldn’t have gotten them with her in his way.
But still, how does she win…? Even with the most electoral votes, a third party candidate can’t really win, can they?
Here’s where it gets good, folks.
By law the nominee needs to reach the set goal of 270 electoral votes to win. You’ll notice that even Clinton doesn’t reach that in my scenario. But in the case of a tie, or an election where neither candidate somehow manages to reach that number, it is decided by House and the Senate and they break the tie.
Oddly enough to be eligible for the vote a candidate must win one of the big three states;
- California
- Texas
- New York
Strange system since I can’t see in a two candidate race, one not winning at least one of the three.
In the case of this fictional election, Clinton won all three of those states based on the results of her performance in the Primaries.
I suspect more black voters would have turned up in New York to possibly give Obama a chance, but out of spite and knowing that Clinton’s spin machine is far superior, I assume she would have prevented that. Therefore by default Clinton is the only one who CAN be voted for and as such both the GOP and the DNC would be legally obligated to vote her back into the Oval Office.
So there you go, Hillary wins.
I bid adieu,
your Origami reporter,
L.Manly
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